Category: Leadership Insights

Day 25

Day 25

It was like one of those old school Sundays where it’s a bit cold outside, there’s nowhere to go anyway, and the inside is full of warmth and activities. I read The Calculus Affair today. Yes I know the story but it’s got some of my favourite components of Tintin – Marlinspike Hall, the Trains in Europe and the cities with amazing details. And funny too.

It wasn’t exactly funny, but the 1pm press conference did seem fairly upbeat. After saying that no decision has yet been made,  in response to a question about business the prime minister said that retail, hospitality and other businesses should be getting themselves readied for opening with social distancing. She said that although level 3 will mean some relaxation for business, the social relaxation is not a thing. Perhaps we should tell her we’ve actually been doing quite a bit of relaxing! Or did I just get my relaxings all mixed up. Anyway, I’m pretty relaxed about it.  Someone mentioned that they’re getting ready to start working on Thursday in a cafe although they probably don’t know any more than the rest of us. Either way, expectation is building of a partial release – let’s say it’s going to be a pre-release work experience type of thing.

As well as Tintin, I also did some reading on Worldometer.  It seems the whole world is obsessed with infections and death rates. For a while there, it had a bit of Olympic Games medal table feel about it – who would get the top of the table, but it’s serious of course – people are dying. It looked like China at the top for many weeks, but that seems a life-time ago and the infection rate in the US is now just less than one-third of the total infections, but only 24% of the total deaths. Dare I say it, they must be doing something right, having let the ‘rona loose.

Since I last looked, the rate of those in serious condition as a percentage of active infections is down to 3%. The percentage increase in deaths has been on a decline for two weeks now. It doesn’t matter what data you look at, the vast majority of deaths are in the 65+ age group, and most have underlying conditions. That doesn’t mean that there are exceptions to this rule and everyone knows of an example that doesn’t meet the majority. Not so in New Zealand though. On the information available none of the deaths in New Zealand had COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death. We don’t know all the actual ages of those whose deaths are attributed to COVID-19 in New Zealand, but using an assumption that someone described as in their 80s is 82.5, and 90s is 92.5 and so on, so as to not overstate it, then the median age is 82.5 and the average age 83.5. We are not an outliner. In Italy 83% of deaths are in people aged over 70.

Here’s some predictions. When we look back the death rate of humans on the planet for 2020, it will not be materially different to other years. The virus squeezed the mortality rate into a compressed time frame. That compression of mortality is without doubt the main reason why action was required to not overload the health system, as is happening in the States. Sound harsh and unfeeling? 150,000 people die each day on earth. At least 500,000 people die each year from influenza and you’d have to think that social distancing and isolation measures will reduce that materially.  Will the ‘rona cause worse rates of fatalities in Africa? Unlikely, the age demographics are wrong – median age in all of Africa is 19.7 years, compared to Europe at 43.  But it won’t be a picnic either, as health services are likely poor.

So 4pm is when we’ll crowd around the radio, Michael Joseph Savage style, crackling reception, have the valves even warmed up yet?, waiting “Where she stands, we stand“.  Okay, so it’ll be “Breaking News” on the television even though we know it’s coming.  Hopefully it’s breaking the Home-D.  Either way it’s a significant leadership opportunity.

Leadership is not for the faint-hearted. In this matter, we have replaced a possible medical crisis, with an absolute economic and social crisis. Breaking the cycle of STAY HOME! will not be easy and requires courage and an acknowledgement that it’s time to let go.

Credit to Peter Bromhead for the cartoon. Captures it perfectly I reckon.

Stephen

 

 

 

Day 24

Day 24

Writing the titles for this series of blogs has been pretty straightforward, obviously.  Writing it today I had a sense of it coming to an end soon. Slightly melancholic feeling, which is weird after wishing the time away.

The Lockdown will probably end to be replaced by another form of restriction, but the Lockdown blogs will end with Level 4 ends. OK!

The sharemarket – as if its a being – appears optimistic about the current economic prospects. Shares have largely rebounded strongly, not regaining all the gains of the last few years, but quite a bit of it. Investors are seeing signs that COVID-19 as a medical issue is largely dispatched, and the economy can fire up again. Yes it’s more complex on both fronts, but I think that’s the perception.

The government led us strongly into economic freeze to stop the ‘rona spreading. It will say there’s still lots to be done, but by the look of the amount of traffic on the streets today, many people have stopped listening. Business is coming back ready or not I think.

I went on a walk again today, a long walk, Maungakiekie and Cornwall Park, Te Kopuku/Mt St John and Maungawhau/Mt Eden. The body needed a big workout to match the mental energy this past week and it paid off.

Do watch Unorthodox on Netflix which I finished tonight. If you don’t need to wipe your eyes you might be a sociopath! It’s only four episodes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zVhRId0BTw

Although there’s quite a few things I like about the Lockdown, I do miss the weekend drive, the coffee in the cafe and riding my motorbike.

So the challenge is to hold on to new ways whilst grabbing back the best of the past.

Leaders can make this their mantra in the refreshed world in a week or two.

Stephen

Day 23

Day 23

Who would have thought that almost the entire New Zealand inside is painted the same colour – more or less? Or that it took only 2 days and everyone started wearing Saturday morning sloth clothes?

I started the day on a video call – Hangout as Google calls it – with Ireland, and then it never really stopped until about 7.15pm. You see lots of the inside.

Working days at home on constant calls I’ve found really quite tiring, so I was tempted to break the walking chain. Of course not! But it was only 3 km and now I’m watching Unorthodox.

It’s the story of a young woman who escapes from her Hasidic Jewish Brooklyn community and goes to Berlin.  She’s taken in by a group of musicians. It flashes backwards and forwards from her old life to her new one: charming, funny and poignant all at the same time. It’s only four episodes so it’s a pleasant change from ten episodes in Sweden about a series of murders orchestrated by those high up in society!

iStock-990192782.jpg

We’re all living out of our normal environment right now. When you’re outside your norm you can learn unexpected things about yourself. I haven’t minded at all the  non-contact. I’ve enjoyed the meetings that start promptly on time. Everyone gets heard. I’ve lived in a more structured manner, and enjoyed it. I work less in the evenings and weekends than I ever have. I walk a lot. I eat better. It’s okay, but the economy can’t survive this indefinitely, or much more at all.

Brandenburg Gate In Berlin. Germany

The finance minister said today at the 1pm briefing that the government had paid $9.8b in wage subsidies. We can’t run an economy for much longer by borrowing. So let’s hope the projections of the 2 weeks in Level 3 then down to the working level – level 2 – turn out to be true. By the way, why is the 1pm broadcast orchestrated like a piece of propaganda? The flashing banners to dob in companies about prices, the STAY HOME! warnings, the repeat instructions telling us what to do and not do. That might be newsworthy but it shouldn’t be pumped out as instructions. That’s not the media’s job. But I forgot, we’re in a national state of emergency. Is it supposed to feel like this?

So whatever the level, I think us knowledge workers will still be working from home for some time yet.

It won’t be so bad, in fact the new environment is an ongoing opportunity for personal growth for all of us.

Have a great weekend. I’m thinking about a COVID-19km walk.

Stephen

Day 22

Day 22

Sadly, my trip down to Christchurch to do a surprise visit for Mum’s 89th birthday got cancelled by Air NZ. Well, I’m sure Air NZ didn’t want to cancel it but they have no choice as we’re not permitted travel until Alert Level 2 is here. So Mum will have to see in her 90th year just with Dad, which will be just fine!

Mum’s been bottling fruit  since 1952 – 67 years  – as long as her and Dad have been married, and there’s no bigger fan of it than Dad who loves it with his Tip Top Boysenberry ice-cream. On our annual road trip in January, Mum picked up some apricots from the place just on the edge of Cromwell as you head towards Queenstown. I enjoyed a bottle of it tonight, slightly warmed, with some Vanilla Ice-cream. Perfect. I’ve been eating it, not regularly, but all my life. I remember the annual bottling ritual when I was a boy – it’s been apricots, peaches, plums (off the tree), pear and stewed apples. Despite the sugar that I recall going in the big vat, it must be alright for you!

If you’re ever at Mum and Dad’s the bottles are safely stored in the cupboard in the laundry. It always seems full, despite them eating it for breakfast and dessert every night. Just don’t go there at night-time because the cat is locked up in there, heated bed and all, safely for the night.

Apricots all eaten up

During the Lockup it’s definitely been a time to enjoy home pleasures and of course home-cooked food. There’s not much else. But growing up I don’t remember much else either. There were occasional visits to friends, rare fish ‘n chip nights and even rarer meals out. Nowadays, they’d never been a week, or in fact hardly a day, when I wouldn’t eat out or at least purchase out.  So maybe it’s not so bad for us all to have some, hopefully, home-cooked nutritious meals. Who knows, it might keep the ‘rona away!

I walked twice today – total 16.5km – and there’s little doubt that La Résistance are firmly in control of Cornwall Park. The security guards on duty have gone from stern occupying sympathisers, to silent, but benevolent supporters. Never have there been so many smiles and acknowledgements from passing walkers. Yes, we’re in this together, but we’re also in this– our democratically empowered exercise – together. If we have to choose, it’s the walk, so don’t mess with us!

There’s been some weird stuff in the park. A well groomed small man with immaculately trimmed barista style beard and hi-vis vest hurtling down the road from the peak of One Tree Hill on his tiny cycle, to skid sideways to a halt just before the barrier; a woman who I knew but couldn’t remember her name who claimed to have a gun to ward off runners who came too close; selfies with bulls; a child out of control on her balance bike down the hill in the wet, smiling all the way; people with masks protecting their chins only; golf; one man soccer games; and skate boards that go up hill (I need).

When we get out of our motor vehicles, play, interact and stop being busy and important, real things happen. This isn’t new to me, but like the ‘rona is said to compress the mortality rate of those most at risk from 12 months to 2 weeks, the Lockdown has compressed these great pleasures into a few weeks.

Can I say keep it up! Well the walking yes at least!

By the time you read this it will be Friday. Enjoy your dessert. Only two people will have it as good as mine was tonight.

Stephen